14. August 2026
Global Sugar Market Shifts Toward Upside Price Risk
Market Overview: Towards a more balanced world market
From March to August 2026, the world sugar market moved from a bearish surplus-driven structure into a more balanced but highly unstable environment, where Brazil’s large cane crop capped rallies, while India and Thailand weather risks, tight white sugar availability, and geopolitical shocks repeatedly limited downside. Raw sugar remained mostly stuck in the 14.0-15.5 c/lb range, with rallies failing to sustain, while white sugar consistently outperformed due to nearby refined sugar tightness.
Price Development: The market bottom is behind us
The period started with raw sugar under strong bearish pressure. In February, prices briefly reached 13.67 c/lb before rebounding on India crop downgrades, but the report emphasized that India’s balance tightening was mostly domestic and did not materially reduce global export availability. Thailand’s stronger crop, by contrast, directly increased export supply to the world market. March brought a sharp macro-driven rally. Sugar prices rose 11.0%, with the May 2026 contract trading around 15.8 c/lb, mainly due to the wider commodity and energy shock linked to the Strait of Hormuz disruption, higher crude oil prices, freight and fertilizer cost concerns, and expectations that Brazilian gasoline pricing could eventually improve ethanol economics. However, April reversed much of this strength. Raw sugar lost 6.1%, touched a five-year low of 13.31 c/lb on 17 April, and bearish sentiment intensified as Brazil’s ethanol policy reduced expectations of a gasoline price adjustment, spot demand remained weak, and stronger late-season production in Asia restored a comfortable global surplus of around 2 million tonnes. By May and June, the market was no longer purely bearish but still struggled to sustain upside. The very strong start to Brazil’s campaign dominated price formation despite India’s export ban and geopolitical headlines. Towards late June and early July, sugar prices rallied above 15 c/lb on the back of the U.S.-Iran Hormuz truce, Brazil rainfall interruptions, and dryness in India and Thailand, but corrected lower after the Hormuz agreement broke down and Brazilian ethanol prices weakened further.
Brazil: Abundant Cane, but Not Unlimited Sugar Supply
Brazil remained the dominant driver throughout the period, but its influence was often contradictory. The market’s bearish bias came from exceptionally large cane availability and expectations for a crop approaching 650 million tonnes, and weak ethanol economics, while the bullish constraint came from a persistently low sugar mix and periodic weather disruptions to harvesting. As a result, Brazil provided abundant cane supply, but not always abundant sugar supply, repeatedly limiting the downside potential despite the size of the crop.
India: Tighter Fundamentals Add Bullish Risk
India gradually evolved from a reduced-export story into a potential source of bullish risk. Production fell toward 28 million tonnes, ending stocks tightened to their lowest level in a decade, exports effectively disappeared from the balance sheet, and weather concerns raised the possibility that India could remain absent from the export market or even become a potential importer later in the season.
Thailand: From Export Relief to Weather-Driven Uncertainty
Thailand switched to an opposite trajectory. What initially appeared as a bearish export-surplus story, following a crop close to 12 million tonnes, progressively shifted into one of the market’s main weather concerns as below-normal rainfall, lower input usage and stronger competition from cassava increased uncertainty over 2026/2027 production prospects.
White Sugar: Tight Refined Supply Supports Price Strength
White sugar was a strong performer throughout the period. While raw sugar remained constrained by abundant Brazilian cane supply, white premiums rose steadily on the back of refinery disruptions in the Middle East, limited Indian export availability and growing concerns over refined sugar supply, resulting in a market increasingly characterized by white sugar tightness despite relatively comfortable raw sugar availability.
Conclusion: Risk Profile Shifts Toward Further Sugar Supply Deterioration
Overall, the market transitioned from a surplus-driven bearish environment to a more balanced structure. Large Brazilian supplies continued to prevent a sustained rally, but tightening Indian fundamentals, increasing Thai weather risks, persistent white sugar scarcity and recurring geopolitical disruptions progressively shifted the risk profile away from outright surplus and towards further sugar balance deterioration.