10. Juni 2025
World sugar market development
After a sluggish start to the year, the sugar market gained momentum in February and remained firm until April 2—Liberation Day—when sentiment turned sharply risk-off. Triggered by renewed recession fears following the announcement of US tariffs, sugar, like most commodities, entered a downward trend. This was further reinforced by favorable weather forecasts in India and Thailand. Despite the current global deficit, expectations of a surplus in SMY 2025/26 (Oct/Sep) and broader macroeconomic concerns weighed on sentiment, with May closing at a weak USc17.05/lbs.
In Brazil’s CS region, the harvest is now in full swing, supported by favorable weather in early May. While still early in the campaign, initial results confirm expectations of lower cane quality, with sugar recoverable content at 116.8 kg/mt—down from 124.75 kg/mt year-on-year. However, the first-half May sugar mix reached its highest level in 14 years for this period, indicating that millers are maximizing their expanded crystallization capacity. Early cane yields are reportedly 15% lower year-on-year, though this may reflect the harvesting of older fields and not the full season’s potential. While it’s too early to draw firm conclusions, the May results were well received by the market following a rain-affected April.
In India, sugar production reached 25.7 mln mt by May 15, with expectations to close the campaign at around 26 mln mt. Attention is now shifting to the 2025/26 outlook. The monsoon appears to have started early, with April and May rainfall exceeding normal levels. June and July will be key to confirming the strength of the season. ENSO conditions are currently neutral and forecast to remain so through September, reducing the likelihood of extreme weather. Following the Indian Meteorological Department’s forecast of an above-normal monsoon, confidence is growing that weather conditions will remain favorable across the region.
The 2024/25 Thai season was downgraded continuously up to the very last harvest report and the final number 10.1 mln mt of sugar produced was below the low end of the expectation range. Conditions for the upcoming 2025/26 season are evolving as expected with the retreat of La Niña. The transition from hot and dry to wetter weather is supporting planting, although some northern regions have yet to benefit. Meanwhile, falling cassava prices continue to incentivize a shift toward sugarcane. The Thai Cane and Sugar Board expects the 2025/26 crop to reach between 92–108 mln mt—a wide but broadly accepted range among market participants.